On May 15, 2025, oil prices fell sharply amid growing optimism that the United States and Iran are nearing a nuclear agreement, which could ease longstanding tensions and impact global oil markets.
During his Middle East visit, US President Donald Trump stated in Doha, Qatar, that the US is engaged in “very serious negotiations” with Iran aimed at achieving long-term peace. Trump expressed confidence that a deal with Iran would be reached soon.
This optimism followed a report from a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, who told NBC News that Iran, a major OPEC oil producer, is prepared to sign a conditional nuclear deal in exchange for sanctions relief.
Brent crude futures for July delivery declined by 3.6% to $63.67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped 4% to $60.64 per barrel.
Analysts warn that if the nuclear deal is finalized and enforced — including Iran’s commitment to halt enrichment of weapons-grade uranium — Iran’s oil exports could increase by up to 1 million barrels per day. This potential supply boost puts downward pressure on oil prices.
Tamas Varga, analyst at brokerage PVM, noted that the prospect of a deal was the main driver of the morning’s price weakness. However, he added that if OPEC+ adjusts its production increases, the impact on prices could be softened.
OPEC and its allies (collectively OPEC+) surprised markets recently by raising oil supply, with Saudi Arabia agreeing to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in both May and June.
Since President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Iran’s economy has suffered severe setbacks, including currency depreciation, high inflation, and regional geopolitical isolation.
Although Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was initially opposed to negotiations with the US, reports suggest that senior Iranian officials are now pushing for a deal to safeguard the regime’s survival.
The anticipated nuclear agreement between Washington and Tehran is expected to have profound implications for the global oil market and geopolitical stability in the Middle East.
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